The Indian stock market was in further decline on Friday, July 12, 2025, as the Nifty 50 recorded the third consecutive losing session. The index declined 205 to close at 25,149, its lowest close since June 24. The 1.22 percent weekly decline corresponds with the growing investor concern of the volatility and economic signals in the market. The Street appears in a bearish campaign, so everyone looks at the Monday, July 14, 2025, trade setup now. So what is next that traders have to look forward to? The future is to be examined.

Key Market Drivers Behind the Decline

TCS, the largest IT services company in India, experienced disappointing earnings, which was the main trigger behind the sell-off on Friday. The dismal Q1FY26 performance of the heavyweight stock sent shockwaves through the technology sector and the Nifty IT index dropped by almost 2%. The market was generally affected by the fact that the company declined by 3.3 percent in constant currency revenue compared to sequential and conservative management commentary.

Moreover, the issues of increasing tensions in global trade, especially the possibility of increasing tariffs, have left a cloud of confusion among investors. This macro-level uncertainty has formed part of the constant profit-booking tendency in different sectors.

Technical Analysis—Support and Resistance Levels

Current Technical Outlook

According to market experts, the Nifty has broken below crucial support levels, signaling a shift in short-term trend dynamics:

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support: 24,900-25,000 range
  • Critical support: 24,800-24,650 (50-day SMA region)
  • Next major support: 24,473 (previous swing low)

Resistance Levels:

  • Immediate resistance: 25,331 (former support turned resistance)
  • Next resistance: 25,400-25,500 range
  • Key resistance: 25,550-25,650 zone

Expert Analysis and Trading Strategy

According to Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities, the index has lost the 20-day moving average (20-DMA), which is a confirmation of the bearish short-term trend. The downside caused by a break below key support zones at 25,331 and 25,222 implies downside possibility.

Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities says that this negative mood will continue to prevail as long as the market holds below 25,300. Nonetheless, any upside move beyond it may restore investor sentiments, and this may see the index rise to 25,550-25,650.

According to Rupak De of LKP Securities, momentum indicators such as RSI are indicating a short-term weakness but the index is nearing the support line on the 200-hour moving average.

Sector Performance Analysis

The Indian stock market experienced a mixed performance on the sectoral basis on July 12. Information Technology and Automotive both followed suit through a decline of almost 2 percent and 1 percent respectively, whereas Media and Oil & Gas also witnessed a decrease. Conversely, Pharmaceuticals was an outperformer, with Nifty Pharma being a potent gainer, with the FMCG sector also being a good performer aided by the stock of Hindustan Unilever.

Mid-cap and Small-cap Performance

The benchmark weakness was reflected in the wider market, where the Nifty Midcap 100 lost 0.9 percent as it slipped a sixth straight session. The Nifty Smallcap 100 fell 1.02 percent, which means that profit booking was seen across market capitalizations.

Stocks to Watch for July 14, 2025

Earnings-Driven Movers

Avenue Supermarts (D-Mart): The retail giant has recorded a quiet first-quarter performance in which net profit has recorded 0 growth of Rs 773 crore. The revenue increased by 16.3 percent YoY to 16,359.7 crore, but the margins declined against 2020.

Glenmark Pharma: Besides getting a warning letter from the USFDA for its Indore plant, management is still under the spotlight because of its huge cancer drug licensing agreement with AbbVie, which lifted the stock 20 percent on Friday.

Infrastructure and Construction

NCC Ltd: The company secured a major ₹2,269 crore contract from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority for Metro Line 6 construction, positioning it well for future growth.

BEML Ltd: The state-owned heavy equipment manufacturer is considering its first-ever stock split, with the board meeting scheduled for July 21, 2025.

Upcoming Earnings to Monitor

Investors should closely watch earnings reports from:

  • HCL Technologies: IT sector bellwether
  • Ola Electric: Electric vehicle sector representative
  • Tata Technologies: Engineering services focus
  • Rallis India: Agrochemicals sector play

Investment Strategy and Market Outlook

Short-term Perspective

The current market correction appears to be a healthy consolidation after the recent uptrend. Bajaj Broking Research notes that the index has taken 10 sessions to retrace just 38.2% of the previous 11-session up move, suggesting a positive underlying structure.

Long-term View

Despite near-term volatility, the broader trend remains constructive. The confluence of support around 24,900-25,100, marked by the 50-day EMA and key retracement levels provide a strong foundation for potential recovery.

Risk Management

Investors should:

  • Monitor global trade developments closely
  • Focus on quality stocks with strong fundamentals
  • Use current dips as potential buying opportunities in fundamentally strong companies
  • Maintain appropriate position sizing and stop-loss levels

Final thoughts

Though the Nifty is undergoing a short-time sell-off because of the poor results and international unpredictability, the technical positioning indicates the possibility of price support at the current levels, which might present long-term investors with buying opportunities. What will follow is the reaction of the market to the approaching earnings reports and any new developments in global trade.

The risk of believing in expensive bull markets should be avoided by traders whose target should be more stock-specific than the market bet. The area between 24,900-25,100 will also be key to monitor, as should the price remain above the mentioned range, it might mark the start of a new upward momentum.

Disclaimer: The following is just an informational analysis that is not intended as an investment advice. An investment should always be advised by a qualified financial advisor.