At the close of its annual summit held in New Delhi, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reaffirmed the airline industry’s ambitious goal to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, despite growing uncertainties surrounding sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) availability and aircraft delivery delays.

Representing over 350 airlines globally, IATA acknowledged that while progress has been made, significant barriers persist. The industry estimates that reaching net-zero will require a staggering $4.7 trillion in investment over the next 25 years—roughly $174 billion annually. Much of that cost may inevitably be passed on to passengers through higher airfares.

A Green Dream Meets Real-World Hurdles

While sustainable aviation fuels are seen as critical to the industry’s climate strategy, production is still alarmingly low. SAF made up just a fraction of total fuel use in 2024, and even optimistic projections suggest it will account for less than 1% of airline fuel in 2025.

Airlines voiced frustration over what they see as a lack of urgency from energy producers. “We’re ready to use more SAF, but the supply simply isn’t there,” said one executive at the summit. In parallel, planemakers like Boeing and Airbus were criticized for failing to deliver new, fuel-efficient aircraft on time—forcing carriers to operate older, more polluting fleets.

Pressure Mounts as Deadlines Loom

Despite internal doubts, no airline formally proposed delaying the 2050 target. However, the conversation has clearly shifted. “We’re still committed to net-zero, but the pathway needs adjusting,” admitted a senior figure from a European airline. Some industry insiders speculate that if SAF remains prohibitively expensive and scarce, more airlines might begin quietly retreating from short-term climate targets.

Adding to the complexity, Air New Zealand recently abandoned its 2030 carbon targets, citing high costs and limited access to green technology—an early warning sign that others might follow.

Leadership and Innovation Still Emerging

Not all the news is bleak. British Airways, through parent company IAG, has secured long-term SAF contracts at discounted rates, hoping to avoid price spikes that have affected competitors like Lufthansa and Virgin Atlantic. Meanwhile, United Airlines is investing in futuristic technologies including carbon capture and blended-wing aircraft that promise up to 50% better fuel efficiency.

India, one of the summit’s focal points, made headlines as Vistara became the first Indian carrier to operate a long-haul flight using a SAF blend, demonstrating emerging market leadership in green aviation.

A Long Flight Ahead

While the aviation industry’s commitment to net-zero remains in place on paper, the road ahead is uncertain. With fuel costs rising, technological breakthroughs still years away, and global regulatory frameworks in flux, the dream of truly sustainable air travel faces turbulence.

Still, IATA insists that cooperation across the supply chain—from fuel producers to policymakers—is key. As one delegate put it: “Reaching net-zero is not just an airline problem. It’s an industry-wide challenge—and we’ll only get there if we all move together.”